We have followed Bitcoin from the decades before it existed to the day it passed $100,000. This final chapter starts with what happened next, in 2025 and 2026, then looks at the open questions ahead and at what history teaches beginners to be careful about.
Since 2025: a new high, a crash, and the rule books
A record, then the biggest forced sell-off ever
In March 2025 the US government signed an executive order creating a "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" that holds, rather than sells, bitcoin seized in law enforcement. In early October 2025 the price set a new record of about $126,000.
Days later, on October 10, a tariff announcement shook markets. Traders who had borrowed to make big bets were forcibly closed out: about $19 billion of positions in a single day, the largest such event in crypto history. By February 2026 bitcoin had fallen to about $60,000, less than half its peak. The halving rhythm described below showed up once again.
Inside the system
Companies kept buying. By October 2026 the US company Strategy held about 850,000 BTC, roughly 4% of all the bitcoin that will ever exist, and Japan's Metaplanet held more than 40,000 BTC.
On July 15, 2026, Japan's parliament passed an amendment that moves crypto assets under the Financial Instruments and Exchange Act, the same law that governs stocks and bonds. It brings insider-trading rules to crypto, and a separate tax change is set to replace today's rates of up to 55% with a flat rate of about 20%, from 2028 at the earliest.
No one in charge, even of the software
In October 2025, Bitcoin Core v30 greatly raised the limit on extra data that transactions can carry (OP_RETURN). Critics warned it would fill the ledger with non-payment data, and some node operators switched to an alternative program, Bitcoin Knots. Both follow the same consensus rules. With no one in charge, each person running a node chooses which software to run.
Three patterns the history reveals
1. Every time it was declared dead, it came back
2011, 2014, 2018, 2022. After each big crash, Bitcoin was pronounced finished. One website keeps a tally of media "Bitcoin obituaries," and the count runs into the hundreds. Yet the network never stopped, and each time the price eventually went on to new highs. That is not a guarantee it will happen again.
2. What broke was always the custodian
Mt. Gox, Coincheck, FTX. Every major disaster involved a company holding people's bitcoin. Bitcoin's own mechanism has not been broken since the bug fix of 2010.
3. There seems to be a four-year rhythm
After each halving (2012, 2016, 2020, 2024) the price rose, peaked the following year and fell sharply the year after that. After the 2024 halving it happened a fourth time: a peak of about $126,000 in 2025, then a drop to less than half in 2026. Some call it the "four-year cycle." Is it coincidence, is it built in, or will ETFs and institutional money break the pattern? That is one of the live questions.
The four-year cycle
Halving, peak, drop.
Four times in a row.
Nobody knows whether it will continue. ETFs and institutional money could change the pattern.
Open questions
- Nations as holders. Since 2025 the US government has held seized bitcoin as a national reserve. Will other countries follow? Similar debates are under way elsewhere.
- Digital gold or everyday money? Bitcoin has grown as an investment asset, but few people use it for daily purchases. How far the Lightning Network spreads will be a key test.
- Energy. Mining uses a lot of electricity. Use of renewable and surplus power is growing, but criticism continues.
- Quantum computers. Machines that could break today's cryptography may one day exist. Research into new cryptographic methods and migration plans is under discussion.
- Regulation. Rules are being written around the world. Japan changed its law in 2026, and the detailed rules are still being drafted.
What beginners should watch out for
What follows is a list of common mistakes drawn from the history. Whether to buy is a decision to research and make for yourself.
The price swings violently
Bitcoin has fallen more than 80% in a year several times. Using anything other than money you can afford to lose is dangerous. Borrowing to buy is out of the question.
Scams are everywhere
"Guaranteed profits." "Endorsed by a celebrity." "Send us bitcoin and we'll double it." These are scams, every time. Investment pitches that start with a direct message on social media or a dating app are a classic pattern. Real Bitcoin has no company behind it and no official sales staff.
Your seed phrase is your lifeline
If you use your own wallet, it will show you a seed phrase of 12 to 24 words. Write it on paper, keep it offline, and never type it into any website or give it to anyone. "This is support, please tell us your seed phrase" is always a scam. Lose the phrase and the coins are gone for good.
Leaving coins on an exchange
This is the lesson of Mt. Gox, Coincheck and FTX. In Japan only exchanges registered with the Financial Services Agency may operate and they must segregate customer assets, but the risk of a company failing is never zero.
Taxes
In Japan, profits from selling bitcoin, spending it on goods or swapping it for another cryptocurrency are generally taxed as miscellaneous income. Under the 2026 law change this is set to become a flat rate of about 20%, from 2028 at the earliest. Even small gains may require a tax return, so check the National Tax Agency's guidance. Other countries have their own rules.
Four rules history teaches
Before you start, remember these.
It has fallen more than 80% in a year, several times.
Real Bitcoin has no sales staff.
Anyone asking is a scammer. Lose it and it’s gone.
History’s failures were always the custodians.
Want to learn more?
- The Bitcoin paper: where it all began. Only nine pages, and worth reading once.
- bitcoin.org: guidance on choosing a wallet and basic precautions.
- This site's glossary: review every term used in the chapters.
Closing words
Bitcoin is the first working answer to the question "Is money that nobody controls possible?" It began as a nine-page paper in 2008, started as a hobby for a handful of people, survived scandal after crash after scandal, and grew into something that nations and the world's largest financial institutions can no longer ignore.
Nobody knows what comes next. But having read this far, the next time Bitcoin appears in the news you will be able to place the event in the larger story, and judge it for yourself. That was the goal of this site.